How to navigate this page
Welcome to WION's story app ‘The Mathematics of Terror’.
Click on the WION icon to know how the project to predict terror began.
Click on the Royal Holloway icon for the mathematics behind ‘predicting terror’.
Power Law & The Hawkes Process
Scientists have been using a mathematical model called the Hawkes Process to study terrorist attacks. The concept is a Power Law, i.e. it assesses the relationship between two quantities wherein a change in one quantity results in a proportional relative change in the other. The idea is that terror attacks don’t always occur independently. More often than not, a major attack boosts the likelihood of a follow-up terror attack. However, the chances of a repeat attack keep diminishing with time.